Box Office Forecast: Sony’s 28 Years Later & Disney/Pixar’s Elio Lead Diverse Summer Slate

Sony and Danny Boyle’s post-apocalyptic horror 28 Years Later is set to open this Friday alongside Disney/Pixar’s original sci-fi Elio, with projected global starts of $56M and $50M, respectively. Along with Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon, expected to maintain the No. 1 spot with over $40M in its second weekend, these three releases aim to generate around $90M domestic box office revenue.

28 Years Later, the third installment following 28 Days Later and 28 Weeks Later, is an elevated horror film with a slightly older-skewing audience compared to Final Destination Bloodlines. Despite fans’ hopes for a $50M+ opening, current advance ticket sales place it closer to films like Longlegs, Civil War, and Evil Dead Rise with a forecast of $28M-$30M for the opening weekend. The film centers on a father and son navigating an island overrun by infected dead people hungry for the living.

The movie’s success depends largely on the upcoming reviews and Thursday night previews, with the embargo lifting Wednesday afternoon. Early previews in the U.S. begin Thursday at noon across 2,800 to 3,300 theaters, including Premium Large Format (PLF) screens shared with Elio and How to Train Your Dragon.

Internationally, 28 Years Later is releasing in most markets except China, where approval is pending. Strong openings are anticipated in the UK, Europe, Mexico, and Southeast Asia, with a projected offshore launch of $28M+. Comparable horror titles include Nosferatu and A Quiet Place: Day One.

Elio has advance ticket sales near $1M in the U.S. and Canada, slightly ahead of Pixar’s Elemental 2023 release, which opened with $29.6M. Though a $20M opening weekend is modest by past standards, it fits the new landscape for original animated movies. The focus is on strong legs and matinee attendance during weekdays, with Elemental achieving a 5x multiplier for a final domestic total of $154.4M.

Elio holds an 82% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, surpassing Elemental’s 73%. The story follows a young space enthusiast whose dream of meeting aliens leads to a meaningful connection with his earthbound aunt. The film is currently playing in 3,750 theaters across the U.S./Canada, including 725 PLF, 2,500+ 3D screens, and 175 D-Box/Motion seats. Early access screenings begin Wednesday, with wide previews Thursday afternoon. The production budget was approximately $150M before P&A.

Internationally, Elio is launching in about 80% of overseas markets, eyeing a $30M+ international start. Comparable animated IP debuts include Migration, The Wild Robot, and Elemental. The movie will roll out in Spain (July 9), China (June 27), and Japan (August 1) during Obon.

Also releasing is the Simon West-directed action comedy Bride Hard, starring Rebel Wilson and Anna Camp. Scheduled in about 2,000 theaters, it is expected to earn only low single-digit millions over the weekend.