The global summer box office is set to reach an impressive $12.4 billion, showcasing a remarkable recovery in the film industry post-Covid. This article explores key trends, major releases, and the overall outlook for the summer season.
Global Summer Box Office Forecast Reaches $12.4 Billion
EXCLUSIVE: This summer, it appears everyone is heading to the movies.
According to Gower Street Analytics, the global box office for the summer is projected to hit $12.4 billion, nearing a post-Covid record for the season, which is measured from May 1 to August 31. The summer of 2023 still holds the title with approximately $13.6 billion.
Record-breaking temperatures at the box office are also evident overseas, with international ticket sales approaching a post-Covid high of $6.3 billion (excluding China).
In the U.S. and Canada, the box office is estimated at $4.2 billion, marking a post-pandemic peak according to Gower’s data, the best since 2019 and 15% higher than last year, 5% above 2023, and 24% greater than 2022. This estimate places North America 1% above the three-year pre-pandemic average for the May-August period.
China is expected to contribute a remaining forecast of nearly $2 billion this summer.
Hollywood has ramped up its production of event films, a strategy that was absent prior to the April 2 global opening of Warner Bros/Legendary’s A Minecraft Movie, which remains the highest-grossing MPA title of 2025 at $953.5 million, just $46.5 million shy of the $1 billion mark. More billion-dollar contenders are on the horizon, including Disney’s Lilo & Stitch (expected to cross $864 million) and Universal’s highly anticipated Jurassic World Rebirth, set for release in early July, which promises to elevate the franchise significantly.
Upcoming Major Releases
Other significant releases anticipated to resonate both internationally and globally this summer include Apple’s racing drama F1: The Movie, which Warner Bros will release on June 27, and Warner Bros/DC Studio’s Superman, which is likely to achieve a $100 million+ opening. Additionally, Marvel/Disney’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps is set for late July, along with August’s The Naked Gun reboot from Paramount, which is expected to perform well in German-speaking territories and Spain.
The global forecast of $12.4 billion represents an 8% increase compared to last summer, a 10% decrease from 2023, and a 22% increase over 2022. Overall, this figure is 9% below the three-year pre-pandemic average (2017-2019) for this season. It is important to note that these numbers are primarily affected by China, which, after a strong start to the year with the $2 billion+ grossing Ne Zha 2, has not produced any significant hits in recent months.
The international box office (excluding China) at $6.3 billion is the best since 2019, reflecting a 9% increase over last year, a marginal 3% decline from 2023, and a 16% increase over 2022, while only 4% below the three-year pre-pandemic average for this period.
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These statistics come as encouraging news for exhibitors and major studios at the CineEurope conference, which concludes today in Barcelona. The overall sentiment there has been positive, with nearly all major European markets reporting increases in the first semester compared to 2024 year-to-date.
France stands out as an exception with an 8% decline in admissions, attributed to last year’s first half, which included the local hit A Little Something Extra (Un P’tit Truc en Plus), the biggest movie of 2024 in that market.
Germany reported a slight increase of 1.2% with $375 million, while Italy experienced a significant spike of 17% on a dollar basis. Spain also saw a surge in the first half of the year, increasing by $11.3 million.
The UK received a notable boost of nearly $63 million from Universal/Studiocanal/Working Title’s Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, which was a theatrical release there, while it was a Peacock title domestically. Bridget also performed well in Germany, France, and the Netherlands (the latter market up nearly 5% in dollar terms).
Looking ahead, the UK is expected to further benefit from the release of Sony and Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later this week, along with Disney/Pixar’s Elio.
Overall, international box office revenue stands at $9.362 billion so far in 2025, marking nearly a 6% increase over last year; global revenue is at $12.86 billion, a 7.4% rise, according to comScore.
In general, the atmosphere in Barcelona has been optimistic, although ongoing concerns such as windows, a steady stream of product, and investment in cinema upgrades remain topics of discussion.
