2025 Emmy Casting Races Show Strong Correlation with Series Wins: Early Front-Runners Revealed

When it comes to predicting the Emmys, one group of bellwether categories stands out: the casting awards. Over the past decade, winners of Best Drama Series and Best Drama Casting have aligned seven times; Best Comedy Series and Best Comedy Casting have matched eight times; and Best Limited Series and Best Limited/Movie Casting nine times—yielding an impressive 80% accuracy rate over the last ten years.

With this strong correlation in mind, the spotlight is now on the 2025 casting races, where The Pitt, The Studio, and Adolescence are early favorites.

Best Drama Casting

Leading the pack is The Pitt, which surprisingly ranks first for casting, even though Severance is the front-runner for Best Drama Series and boasts three times more acting nominations. The Pitt had only three acting nominees: Noah Wyle, Katherine LaNasa, and Shawn Hatosy. Yet, history shows this can still lead to wins; Homeland had fewer acting nominations when it won in 2012.

Trailing behind is The White Lotus, a two-time casting winner (2022 limited series, 2023 drama series) known for its seasonal cast revamps, giving it a distinct edge. Season 3 of The White Lotus earned eight acting nominations, including stars like Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, and Sam Rockwell.

Severance, with its acclaimed second season, is third, with nine acting nominees including Adam Scott, Patricia Arquette, and Jane Alexander. Following are The Last of Us Season 2, featuring Pedro Pascal and Bella Ramsey, and Slow Horses Season 4, which received a casting nod despite notable snubs.

Best Comedy Casting

The Studio leads comedy casting, thanks to 10 acting nominations—the highest among TV programs this year. Notable nominees include Seth Rogen, Kathryn Hahn, Bryan Cranston, and Zoë Kravitz. As the only first-year comedy nominated, it joins a prestigious list of rookie winners like The Bear (2023) and Abbott Elementary (2022).

Second place goes to Only Murders in the Building Season 4, which featured many special guest stars, although most were surprisingly snubbed, including leads Steve Martin and Selena Gomez. The bright spot: Martin Short earned his fourth straight Best Comedy Actor nomination.

The Bear, the two-time reigning casting champion, hopes for a third straight win with seven nominees this season, including Jeremy Allen White and Jamie Lee Curtis. Hacks ranks fourth, with nominations for Jean Smart and others, though it has yet to win casting. Newcomer Shrinking enters the race with four acting nominations, including Jason Segel and Harrison Ford.

Best Movie/Limited Casting

Adolescence is the clear favorite for casting, propelled by five relatively unknown actors—Stephen Graham, Owen Cooper, and others—who have become breakout stars following the Netflix limited series’ success. Their rapid rise recalls last year’s Baby Reindeer, which won multiple Emmys including casting and series.

The other nominees trail in Adolescence’s shadow:

• Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story boasts three acting nods.

• The Penguin earned three as well, including Colin Farrell.

• Black Mirror received one nomination for Rashida Jones.

• Dying for Sex gathered three acting nominations.