Early 2026 Oscar Predictions: Ryan Coogler’s Sinners Leads Best Picture and Director Races
Just over 24 hours since Gold Derby opened its 2026 Academy Awards predictions, early data reveals key trends in the race for the Oscars.
While it’s too early to name definitive frontrunners, more than 500 users have already submitted their picks, offering a glimpse into public opinion on the biggest categories.
Currently, Ryan Coogler’s vampire film Sinners stands as the clear frontrunner. A blockbuster genre hit starring multiple bona fide movie stars, Sinners has the advantage of wide audience visibility, unlike many early contenders which rely mostly on festival buzz or the prestige of their directors’ previous work.
At this stage, Sinners leads both Best Picture and Best Director categories. Michael B. Jordan, who also stars in the film, holds strong in Best Actor, while Wunmi Mosaku appears safely in the top five for Best Supporting Actress. However, the fall movie season still awaits, and much can change before final nominations.
Cannes Influence on Oscar Predictions
Distributor Neon has cemented a successful strategy by acquiring Cannes winners, notably the Palme d’Or recipient, which often translates to Oscar contention. This year, they picked up Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident and Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value (Grand Prix winner). Both films have impressed critics and audiences at Cannes, bolstering their early awards season profiles.
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Wicked: For Good—A Musical Sequel with Oscar Hopes
The original Wicked film exceeded expectations, earning ten Oscar nominations and two wins. The sequel, Wicked: For Good, currently ranks third in early Best Picture predictions. Stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande hold high positions in the acting races.
Yet, some caution exists around the sequel’s darker tone and less iconic songs, raising questions about whether it will resonate as strongly with voters.
Biopic Buzz: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Musical biopics remain a consistent Oscar favorite. The trailer for Springsteen’s Deliver Me From Nowhere has generated excitement. Jeremy Allen White, already a recognized talent due to The Bear, stars in a role with strong awards potential.
