As the Emmy Awards approach, the competition between ‘Saturday Night Live’ and ‘Last Week Tonight’ heats up, especially with SNL celebrating its landmark 50th season.
‘SNL’s’ 50th Season Faces Off Against ‘Last Week Tonight’ for Best Scripted Variety Series
When Last Week Tonight With John Oliver switched Emmy categories from Variety Talk Series to Scripted Variety Series, it ended Saturday Night Live‘s six-year winning streak. Last Week Tonight, which has claimed nine consecutive program trophies, is now aiming for its 10th win this year. However, SNL‘s milestone 50th season is expected to be a formidable contender.
Understanding the Emmy Nomination Process
This year, there are six submissions for Best Scripted Variety Series, resulting in only two nominees. Television Academy members voting in this category must watch an episode from each contender (a requirement not present in other program races) and then vote “yes” or “no” on whether they believe each show deserves a nomination. The two entries with the highest support will be nominated, provided they both exceed 70 percent approval, according to the Emmys rulebook.
Defining Scripted Variety Series
A Scripted Variety Series is defined as a variety program that is primarily scripted, or loosely scripted improv, and consists of discrete scenes, satire, musical numbers, monologues, comedy stand-ups, sketches, etc. Scripted Variety may occasionally feature unscripted elements, but the main intent of the series is scripted or performed entertainment.
Current Predictions for Best Scripted Variety Series
According to Gold Derby’s Emmy predictions, Last Week Tonight has the best chance of winning this year. In Season 12, the John Oliver-hosted program tackled significant topics such as Elon Musk‘s influence on Donald Trump‘s presidency, online content moderation, tipping, ICE detention centers, sports betting, police use of tasers, and discrimination against trans women in sports. A 10th victory would bring Last Week Tonight just one win shy of the all-time record-holder, The Daily Show With Jon Stewart, which won 11.
SNL celebrated its golden anniversary on NBC with a season featuring returning cast members and special guest stars, including Maya Rudolph as Vice President Kamala Harris, Jim Gaffigan as Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Andy Samberg as second gentleman Douglas Emhoff, Dana Carvey as President Joe Biden, and Mike Myers as Musk. Notable guest hosts during Saturday Night Live‘s 50th season included Ariana Grande, Chris Rock, Dave Chappelle, Timothée Chalamet, Lady Gaga, and Scarlett Johansson. (Note that the two primetime specials, SNL50: The Anniversary Special and SNL50: The Homecoming Concert, are competing in the separate category of Best Live Variety Special.)
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Other Contenders for Best Scripted Variety Series
The other four contenders for Best Scripted Variety Series are Fantasmas, focusing on Julio Torres‘ search for a golden oyster earring; Studio C, a 20-year-old family-oriented sketch show; After Midnight, a late-night quiz spoof hosted by Taylor Tomlinson; and It’s Florida, Man, which reimagines bizarre stories from the Sunshine State.
Gold Derby’s Emmy odds are based on the combined forecasts of over 4,100 individuals (and counting), including experts from major media outlets, editors covering awards year-round, and a large user base contributing to predictions. Explore our charts and graphs for the latest Emmy predictions and join the discussion in our TV forum.
Predicted Nominees
- Last Week Tonight With John Oliver — 11/20
- Saturday Night Live — 2/1
Potential Spoilers
- Fantasmas — 100/1
- Studio C — 100/1
Longshots
- After Midnight — 100/1
- It’s Florida, Man — 100/1
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